No Silver Bullet
Have you ever seen a silver bullet?
Once upon a time, an uncle named Frederick, who lived somewhere in the world of software, suddenly noticed. After all, there is no silver bullet in the world of software development .
Now that the world of software development has changed drastically , I wonder if there are silver bullets that did not exist in the past, as far as I know, there seems to be no silver bullets. By the way, what is a silver bullet ?
In the well-known software engineering paper " Silver Bullet " by Frederick Brooks in 1986 , “Technologies that are magically quick and useful and double the productivity of programmers. Practice ( silver bullets ) will not appear in the next 10 years, “said the story of silver bullets in the software world .
No Silver Bullet – essence and accidents of software engineering
No silver bullets — the nature and contingencies of software engineering
No other monster in a nightmare in folk tales is as scary as a wolf man. Because wolf humans suddenly turn what they are accustomed to into fear. So we look for a silver bullet that can magically calm this wolf man.
Familiar software projects also have some of these qualities, which are usually harmless and decent, but can also be monsters such as schedule delays , bloated budgets , and defective products . And we hear a desperate cry for silver bullets, a silver bullet that can dramatically reduce the cost of software as well as the cost of computer hardware.
However, if you look at it for the next 10 years , you can’t see any silver bullets . In terms of technology and management method , there is no single development that can promise even one dramatic improvement in productivity , reliability and ease in 10 years . In this chapter, we will look at why it cannot be a silver bullet by examining both the nature of the software problem and the properties of each proposed silver bullet.
Have you ever seen a silver bullet?
Once upon a time, an uncle named Frederick, who lived somewhere in the world of software, suddenly noticed. After all, there is no silver bullet in the world of software development .
Now that the world of software development has changed drastically , I wonder if there are silver bullets that did not exist in the past, as far as I know, there seems to be no silver bullets. By the way, what is a silver bullet ?
In the well-known software engineering paper " Silver Bullet " by Frederick Brooks in 1986 , “Technologies that are magically quick and useful and double the productivity of programmers. Practice ( silver bullets ) will not appear in the next 10 years, “said the story of silver bullets in the software world .
No Silver Bullet – essence and accidents of software engineering
No silver bullets — the nature and contingencies of software engineering
No other monster in a nightmare in folk tales is as scary as a wolf man. Because wolf humans suddenly turn what they are accustomed to into fear. So we look for a silver bullet that can magically calm this wolf man.
Familiar software projects also have some of these qualities, which are usually harmless and decent, but can also be monsters such as schedule delays , bloated budgets , and defective products . And we hear a desperate cry for silver bullets, a silver bullet that can dramatically reduce the cost of software as well as the cost of computer hardware.
However, if you look at it for the next 10 years , you can’t see any silver bullets . In terms of technology and management method , there is no single development that can promise even one dramatic improvement in productivity , reliability and ease in 10 years . In this chapter, we will look at why it cannot be a silver bullet by examining both the nature of the software problem and the properties of each proposed silver bullet.
It’s a long time ago
Speaking of 1986, it is almost 30 years ago . For us residents of the software industry, who live in the world of dog-years a year, a year ago, and a decade ago, 30 years ago is as old as BC.
In fact, at that time there was no internet yet . People called computer nerds in the general public put a modulated digital signal on the telephone line and communicated at a speed of 1200bps point to point. At 1200bps, the modulated sound sounds like za and noise. With the 300bps modulation just before that, I heard the sound in the audible range, and I realized that the machines were doing their best to communicate with each other. Thirty years ago is such an ancient era that you can’t imagine from now on .
Frederick Brooks in that era, does not appear silver bullet in the development of the software the next 10 years and , I was predicted. And what is happening in the world of software in the present age, far after the predicted 10 years? Is there a silver bullet in the field of software development in the modern world where all the mechanisms in the world depend heavily on software such as the Internet , artificial intelligence, and IoT ? Without it, it would be very troublesome, but …
So are there silver bullets in modern times?
Development tools that automatically generate source code from design documents, static analysis / dynamic analysis tools for completed source code, inspection tools for detecting security holes, and various tools have been devised and are actually used. Given the scale and complexity of old-fashioned software, these tools are likely to be of some use as silver bullets .
But unfortunately, software monsters have become huge and complicated over time.
In today’s world, computers are embedded in everything, and in the cyber space where they are connected via the Internet , various services are provided by various companies. The computer system has become the System of System (SoS), and new services continue to be born by connecting the systems. At the software development site where all of them depend , software products continue to be uncontrollable monsters . Unfortunately, silver bullets don’t even exist in the world today.
But even without silver bullets , we software engineers have to complete the software. The software must be of sufficient quality to work.
If you don’t have silver bullets , you ca n’t help it . Let’s build up small things and things that can be done one by one , make somehow good quality software, and put it out to the world.
In this blog, I will introduce little by little what small things and things you can do.